Cuppa

Afternoon.

It’s Monday 12th October: Andy Burnham wants Britain to rethink Brexit, the Chancellor faces a rather uncomfortable £35bn warning and an investigation has uncovered some questionable paperwork involving Roman Abramovich.

Kettle on.

📅 On this day: In 1969, Monty Python's Flying Circus aired its second episode on BBC One. The comedy series, featuring John Cleese, Michael Palin and four other comedians, would go on to become one of Britain's most influential television shows.

Worth Knowing…

🇪🇺 Brexit, take two?

Prime Minister Andy Burnham is preparing to tell MPs that Britain needs to rethink its relationship with the European Union, arguing that Brexit has done more harm than good. He wants closer cooperation on trade and immigration, saying it could help the economy grow while improving efforts to tackle illegal migration.

It's quite a change from his predecessor Keir Starmer, who preferred improving relations with Brussels without reopening the bigger Brexit debate. Burnham hasn't ruled out eventually rejoining the EU, but there's an important distinction here. Britain could negotiate closer trading arrangements without becoming an EU member again, potentially reducing paperwork and other barriers for businesses.

Actually rejoining would be a much bigger undertaking, requiring negotiations with all 27 EU countries and decisions about which membership rules Britain would accept. Burnham is expected to outline possible approaches ahead of a UK-EU summit later this year. For now, no new deal has been agreed, but the question of Britain's long-term relationship with Europe is firmly back on the table.

💷 A £35bn headache

The Chancellor has been given a fairly daunting warning ahead of the Budget on 28 October: keeping Britain's public services running as intended could require up to £35bn more a year by 2030–31. That's according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), an independent organisation that examines government finances.

The problem is that inflation makes everything from hospital supplies to public-sector wages more expensive. Meanwhile, the government wants to increase defence spending without allowing other services to deteriorate. Under one IFS scenario, protecting existing services while increasing health and defence spending would require an extra £20bn annually. Allowing for further pressures on pay and productivity takes that to £35bn.

Crucially, this isn't a confirmed £35bn hole in the Treasury's accounts. It's an estimate of what particular spending choices could cost. The government could raise taxes, reduce spending elsewhere, improve efficiency or scale back its ambitions. None is particularly painless. The IFS says the Chancellor needs to explain how the numbers will add up, rather than promising spending that future budgets cannot realistically support.

🛥️ Abramovich's paper trail

A joint investigation by BBC Panorama and the Bureau of Investigative Journalism has accused staff at accounting giant Deloitte of helping Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich conceal assets and avoid tax.

Investigators uncovered more than 1,000 allegedly backdated corporate records, some by several years. They say the paperwork helped move assets between countries on paper, potentially avoiding tax and disguising who controlled them. Deloitte's Cyprus operation and its spin-off Meritservus allegedly helped prepare the records, some of which Deloitte later relied on when auditing company accounts.

The investigation estimates that at least $10bn in assets was concealed through the arrangements. Abramovich denies evading tax or hiding his wealth, while Deloitte Cyprus says it complies with applicable laws and cannot comment on the specific allegations without access to old correspondence.

Also Today…

♨️ Heat pumps face the chop

Government subsidies for heat pumps could be significantly reduced as ministers look for savings to help fund higher defence spending. Heat pumps use electricity to extract warmth from the air or ground, providing an alternative to gas boilers. The Boiler Upgrade Scheme currently offers grants towards installation costs in England and Wales.

According to the Guardian, the energy department has been asked to find more than £2bn in savings, with the scheme among the possible targets. No final decision has been announced. Critics warn that cutting support could make it harder for households to switch away from fossil fuels.

🌍 A ceasefire, apparently

Donald Trump has announced an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to stop attacking each other's energy infrastructure. There's just one fairly substantial problem: Ukraine says it only learnt about the supposed deal through the media, while Moscow hasn't confirmed it.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says his country is willing to stop targeting Russian energy facilities if Russia does the same. But he says Russian strikes have continued, including an attack on a power plant in Kharkiv. With winter approaching, an agreement could help protect electricity and heating supplies. For now, though, calling it a functioning ceasefire would be premature.

✈️ Heathrow wants an answer

Heathrow is pushing ahead with its campaign for a third runway, warning that investors need clarity from the government. The airport says expansion could attract £33bn in private investment and create more than 100,000 jobs, although those are its own projections, not guaranteed outcomes.

Parliament is examining the plans, while climate advisers have questioned whether expansion is compatible with Britain's emissions targets. And even if everything goes ahead, the new runway might not open until 2039. Not exactly a quick trip through departures.

Before You Go…

🦧 Life after the rescue

Two orangutans rescued and rehabilitated in Borneo are providing some encouraging news for conservationists. The Borneo Orangutan Survival Foundation has shared an update on Yuniar and Bong, two female orangutans being monitored after their return to the rainforest.

Researchers spotted them exploring the forest in July, with Bong carrying a baby she'd given birth to in the wild. Both were finding their own food, including fruit, rattan shoots and termites. For conservationists, a baby born in the wild is a particularly encouraging sign that rehabilitation is working.

It's a reminder that rescuing an endangered animal is only part of the job. The real success comes when it can get on with being a wild animal again, preferably without a team of humans following it around.

Have a great day.

See you tomorrow.

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